Data from the 2020 Census shows slow population growth and a significant amount of unoccupied housing in the Upper Valley.
Less than 85 percent of homes were occupied in Orange County’s census districts. Bradford, Randolph, Thetford, and Williamstown were the four exceptions.
In Grafton County, only Hanover, Lebanon, Littleton, and Plymouth had over 85% of homes occupied. In several census districts, the amount of occupied housing was lower than 70%, and in resort towns like Lincoln and Waterville Valley, fewer than 50% of homes were occupied.
Grafton County Commissioner Linda Lauer said that property has been changing hands rapidly in the area, and that she suspected the empty homes belonged to vacationers who spend most of their time out of state.
“The data that we’re getting from the [Grafton County] Registry of Deeds says the housing market in Grafton County is really booming,” Lauer said. “Real estate is moving, and my conjecture is that it is second homes.”
Orange County had a population of 29,277 as of 2020, a 1.2% increase from its 2010 population of 28,396. Grafton County’s population in 2020 was 91,118, increasing 2.1% from 89,118 one decade ago.
Both counties grew at slower rates than their respective states between 2010 and 2020. Vermont’s population as a whole grew by 2.8%, while New Hampshire’s population grew by 4.6%.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the 2020 Census was conducted over the course of several months in 2020, beginning in March and ending in October.
33.1% of the data was collected by census takers, a process which experienced some disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The remaining housing units counted in the census responded online, by phone, or by mail.
In an Aug. 21 Valley News story, University of New Hampshire demographer Kenneth Johnson said that most of the Census data was collected prior to April 2020 and therefore did not reflect the migration of urban and suburban families to more rural areas that took place during the pandemic.
Johnson also said that Grafton County’s population increase was likely due to migration, crediting the growth to Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center and Dartmouth College.
“A big medical facility and a college make [Grafton County] a pretty appealing place to live,” Johnson told the Valley News.
The racial makeup of Orange County was 92.1% white, 1.1% black, 3.1% Native American, and 1.1% Asian, with 5.6% of respondents identifying as multiracial and 1.6% Latino.
Grafton County’s population was 89.2% white, 1.7% black, 2.1% Native American, and 4.2% Asian. There are 5.5% of respondents who identify as multiracial, and 2.8% identified as Latino.
Both counties have seen an increase in residents of color in the past decade, mirroring the overall trend across the United States. The proportions of white residents in both counties are still higher than those of New Hampshire and Vermont in total, two of the whitest states in the nation, and the U.S. Census Bureau ranks northern New England’s three states at the bottom in racial diversity.
The information on demographic change comes amid conversations about race in the Upper Valley. A number of local schools have changed or are considering changing their curriculums to address the ways in which racism has impacted American history and currently impacts Americans’ lives.
According to the Valley News, several New Hampshire communities have debated in recent months over whether critical race theory, a concept typically taught to law students, should be banned from public school systems.
Some 2020 Census results were released on Aug. 12, and they include information about several aspects of national, state, and local populations. Census data can be found at census.gov.
View published article in The Journal Opinion.