How did Vermont's presidential voters shift politically in the 2020 election?
By Brooke McKeen, Chase McGuire and Mia Dillon
The Vermont electorate made some significant political shifts in their preferences for president in four years, voting data shows.
On the whole, Vermonters' partisan presidential preferences continue a Democratic lean, with though some towns doubled-down on their choice for incumbent Donald Trump, a Republican. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton clinched 56% of the statewide vote to Trump’s 30%, whereas in 2020, president-elect Joe Biden improved on Clinton’s win with 66% of the state vote, with Trump remaining at 30%.
Professor Eric Davis, a professor emeritus of political science at Middlebury College says these political shifts could not be permanent.
“The question for this is just whether Biden or whoever runs for president in 2024 hold these Trump to Biden voters in highly educated New England Communities,” Davis said.
One of the main differences this year is the lack of strong third-party candidates in 2020, Davis said. In 2016 there were many Democratic-leaning voters who did not vote for Hillary Clinton, and many Republican-leaning voters not picking Trump. He thinks it's clear that a lot of those 2016 third party votes went to Biden this Year.
Davis said it is important to be careful when looking at small towns with large swings.
“I tend to look at the towns that have populations of a thousand or higher...They make up a large number of the precincts, but they make up a small percentage of the total vote cast in Vermont right now,” said Davis.
A town such as Warren VT, that cast just over 1200 ballots, still saw a 15% increase to the Democratic vote from 2016.
It’s hard to say if this trend will be consistent through the 2024 election. It may not be the case that VT is just becoming increasingly blue.
It will be important to see if Democrats can hold onto these votes through the next election cycle. This was a trend common through highly college educated communities throughout New England, Davis said.
Read more about why some towns with the most extreme political shifts may have moved the way they did:
Landgrove, +21% Democratic:
Landgrove Vermont, a town of 158 residents as of the 2010 census, produces some interesting election results in 2020 compared to 2016.
In 2020, 135 Landgrove residents voted, making it the highest voter turnout percentage in the state at 94%. 84% of those who voted, voted for presidential candidate Joe Biden, giving the town a 71.1% lean to Joe Biden. Although in 2016 about half of Landgrave residents voted for Hillary Clinton.
Representative Linda Sullivan (Bennington-Rutland) said in an email that Landgrove has been consistent for a long time.
“I would think it is due to the population that simply perchance has purchased homes in that area as well as the trend to vote this year 2020 Biden-hence Dem. As their Representative this is the second term I have run without competition.”
Brighton, +5.22% Republican:
Brighton is a small rural town in Vermont’s Northeast Kingdom, with a population around 1,200 according to the 2010 census.
In the 2020 election, data shows that Brighton had a 5.22% increase in voters supporting Donald Trump when compared to the 2016 election.
Brighton, VT town clerk Teresa Potwin believes that Brighton’s gain of Trump-supporting voters during the 2020 election can be attributed to new voter registration. She believes that many young voters registered for the first time in Brighton this election, mostly young adults who have recently turned eighteen and are now eligible to vote.
“I think that the shift that we had was because we had younger people that actually registered to vote this time. They wanted to put their say in for the election. I think that the increase was just because of the increase in voter registration.”
Potwin says that she believes there was about a 15% rise in Brighton’s registered voters, made up mostly of people just turning eighteen.
Selectboard Chair, Mike Strait, attributes some of this gain in Trump votes to the influx of second home ownership and the fact that Brighton, its village of Island Pond in particular, has become a popular snowmobiling destination. He also recognizes the influx in registered voters, which most likely contributed to the gain.
“There is a similarity between the town of Woodford and Island Pond. They are both snowmobiling meccas, so there are a lot of people coming in from out of state that have homes here. Most tend to be more Republican-leaning. That’s probably where you’re seeing that big shift,” Strait said.
“It was also a record voter turnout for us. It was the biggest vote we’ve ever had in town by a considerable margin,” Strait added.
Woodford, +15.81% Republican
In the very opposite end of the state, far from Brighton, Woodford, VT, is a little under 30 minutes north of the Massachusetts border.
Woodford has a smaller population of around 455 people, according to the 2010 census.
Woodford stands out in this year’s election, with the biggest right leaning political shift of any Vermont town in the presidential race.
From the 2016 election, to this year’s election, Woodford had a 15.81% gain in Trump supporting voters. This is definitely a significant shift, but it is also important to keep in mind the small population of this town, as political shifts in towns with small populations can be trickier to gauge.
Tinmouth, +7.5% Republican
Like Woodford, Tinmouth has a small population of around 600, as of the 2010 census. It is a small pastoral town with lots of farmland.
Tinmouth had a significant political shift between the 2016 and 2020 elections, with a 7.5% increase in Trump-supporting voters. Again, it is important to note Tinmouth’s small population size when looking at this shift.
Selectboard member, Cathy Reynolds, says that Tinmouth is a very politically divided town in a politically divided county. Reynolds says that and the divide has not changed much from 2016 to 2020.
“There are people with very strong opinions all along the spectrum. It’s very definitely purple in all shades,” Reynolds said.
A combination of local, statewide, and national politics seem to have swung the vote in Tinmouth. One particular controversial local race stands out.
Arthur (Art) Peterson, a first-time Republican statehouse candidate, and a Black Lives Matter movement opponent, defeated longtime Democratic representative David Potter.
After a student request to raise the BLM flag at Tinmouth schools and followed by a school board vote to raise both the BLM and Pride flag at Mill River Union Schools, Art Peterson led a group in opposition and acquired over 500 signatures in a petition to oppose the flag raising and a “Get Out the Vote” campaign urging people to vote against it.
There was a lot of time and resources by Peterson and this group to politicize the question of raising the BLM flag. Voter participation was very likely increased due to the local flag raising issue.
“I would imagine that the Trump vote aligned with electing Arthur Peterson. The ‘Get Out the Vote’ campaign around the flag was huge. I would also really look to increased voter participation and who those people were, because we had so much more participation,” Reynolds said.
Irasburg, +5.98% Republican
Another northern Vermont town, Irasburg, is located around 40 minutes west of Brighton and parts of Canada can be seen from some areas in town.
Irasburg had a 5.98% increase in voters supporting Trump from 2016 to 2020. With a small population of about 1,130 people, but larger than that of some of the other Vermont towns profiled in this article.
Town clerk Danielle Ingalls believes this increase in percentage is attributable to an increased voter turnout.
“I know we had a much larger turnout than we normally do. I think that would be the biggest reason,” Ingalls said.
When asked the possible reason behind a larger than normal voter turnout in Irasburg, Ingalls said, “If I was to guess, I would say it’s probably because of how the media has been driving it home all year. I think a lot of people felt that they really needed to get out and vote.”
Ingalls also believed that the option of mail-in ballots this year played a role.
“People that probably wouldn’t normally come out to vote just mailed in a ballot instead,” Ingalls said. “We also did have a very large turnout the day of and a lot of people registering to vote for the first time at the polls.”
Ingalls added that there was a wide range of ages for first-time voter turnout.
Ingalls assumes that there was a mix of national and local issues and agendas on people’s minds which would have influenced their vote.
“I think that Irasburg isn’t immune to any sort of impact that any election would have nation-wide. Irasburg is going to be just as affected as any other location,” Ingalls said when asked about election impacts on the town.
Benson, + 4.81% Republican
Located in Rutland County on the Vermont-New York border, Benson has a population of about 1,060, according to the 2010 Census.
Benson had a 4.81% gain in Trump-supporting voters from the 2016 election to the 2020 election. Like all Vermont towns, we have to consider the increase in voter participation when looking at this shift. It is also important to note the small population size.
Plymouth, + 26.06% Democratic:
Plymouth Vermont, the birthplace of Calvin Coolidge, cast 371 ballots. Of the ballots cast 67.65% went to Joe Biden, and 28.03% went to Donald Trump, a 26.06% percent shift toward the Democratic nominee compared to the 2016 election.
Stockbridge, + 26.49% Democratic:
The town of Stockbridge cast 479 votes, 341 of which went to Joe Biden, and 123 of which went to Donald Trump. The 2020 election resulted in a 79.19% lean towards the democratic party, a 26.49% increase from the 2016 election.
